Climate Risks for India in the Coming Decades and the Need to Invest in Adaptation Projects

Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, posing unprecedented risks to economies, ecosystems, and human well-being. India, with its diverse geography and significant dependence on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, faces heightened vulnerability. Rising temperatures, extreme heat events, changing precipitation patterns, droughts, floods, and coastal hazards are increasingly evident, threatening rural livelihoods and urban infrastructure alike. Although India has been proactive in formulating climate policies—such as the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs)—and has undertaken mitigation initiatives, the intensifying impacts demand a sharper focus on adaptation. This article reviews India’s key climate risks, summarizes existing adaptation strategies, and discusses the urgent need for scaling up investments in resilience-building measures. It concludes by proposing a strategic path forward to mainstream and finance climate adaptation across sectors.

1. Introduction

Climate change is a global concern demanding immediate attention. Around the world, intensifying weather extremes—ranging from unprecedented heatwaves to flooding—underscore our collective vulnerability. India’s distinct geography and agrarian-based economy render it especially susceptible. Roughly 700 million Indians rely on rain-fed agriculture, and nearly 300 million people live in coastal districts exposed to sea-level rise and severe storm surges [1]. Multiple studies suggest that India’s average annual air temperature could rise by 2–3 °C by the mid-21st century [1].

Simultaneously, water scarcity, heatwaves, droughts, and more frequent storms are already affecting the health and livelihoods of millions. According to government data, 85% of India’s landmass is exposed to multiple hazards, with 45.64 million hectares prone to flooding [2]. A recent analysis, which examined climate data from 1990–2019 and projected trends from 2021–2050, concludes that India faces a “warmer and wetter” future [3]. Although India has invested in climate forecasting and early warning systems, adaptation must take a front seat to protect its most vulnerable populations [3].

Comparisons of observed temperature data in different regions of India suggest some areas (including parts of the northeast, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Jammu & Kashmir) are warming at a pace consistent with even more extreme pathways (RCP 6.0 or 8.5) [1]. Projections indicate that, under high-emissions scenarios, a substantial share of India could witness temperature increases surpassing 2 °C within the next few decades [1]. Accompanying shifts toward a warmer and wetter climate have district-level implications for public health, water resources, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure [2,4].

Adaptation—defined as the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate changes to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities—is essential for reducing climate-related risks [1]. India, as a developing economy with widespread poverty and weather-dependent livelihoods, must embed adaptation strategies within its broader development and poverty-alleviation agenda [5]. Climate vulnerabilities, compounded by poverty, inequality, and environmental degradation, amplify one another [5]. Over the last decade, the Government of India has begun integrating adaptation measures across multiple sectors [6], and the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement also place special emphasis on adaptation [7].

In 2008, India launched its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) [8], which, along with State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs), forms a policy framework for tackling climate change both nationally and subnationally [7]. However, funding and capacity constraints continue to hinder large-scale implementation of adaptation measures [9]. Analysts warn that the global adaptation financing gap is widening faster than ever, especially in developing countries [10]. India’s National Adaptation Fund currently provides some support [1], but recent state-level assessments indicate far greater resources are needed—on the order of multiple billions of dollars annually [11].

The following sections detail India’s major climate risks—temperature extremes, precipitation variability, agriculture and food security, public health, and infrastructure—drawing on recent scientific literature and policy reports. We then examine existing adaptation initiatives in India, discuss financing challenges, and propose a path forward for mainstreaming and financing adaptation effectively.

2. Temperature Extremes and Heat Waves

Empirical analyses show that mean and extreme temperatures in India are rising, posing an enormous challenge to agriculture, water resources, and public health [1,12]. Under high-emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios, average temperatures by the end of the century could rise by as much as 3.5 °C [1,12]. Even near-term projections (2016–2045) suggest a 1–1.5 °C increase, which intensifies the likelihood of heat stress events [1,12]. Modeling indicates that hot days (above certain temperature thresholds) could increase by over 45 days per year under worst-case mid-century scenarios [1].

An additional dimension is the rise in overnight temperatures, which will make it harder for people to recover from daytime heat [1,12]. Heat waves already contribute significantly to India’s annual mortality. Cities such as Ahmedabad, Bikaner, and Vellore have recorded escalating daytime temperatures in recent years [2,3]. As temperatures cross certain physiological thresholds, outdoor labor productivity declines, posing economic and health burdens on vulnerable populations.

A 2023 study warns that a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature could place over a billion people at risk of extreme heat stress [13]. Accordingly, Indian policymakers and civil-society organizations are developing adaptation strategies to counter heat threats. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and partners have championed Heat Action Plans (HAPs) in several cities, including the pioneering Ahmedabad HAP [14]. Key components include:

• Early Warning and Inter-Agency Coordination: Color-coded alerts issued through local channels.
• Public Awareness Campaigns: Education on staying hydrated, recognizing heat-related illnesses.
• Capacity Building in the Health Sector: Staff training, adequate stocks of life-saving supplies.
• Cool Roofs and Urban Greening: Reflective paint, white roofs, and tree planting to reduce the urban heat island effect.
• Targeting Vulnerable Groups: Direct services for outdoor workers, slum dwellers, and the elderly.

Ahmedabad’s HAP, started in 2013, is credited with saving over a thousand lives annually [14,15]. Since then, other urban centers like Hyderabad and Nagpur have adapted similar plans [16]. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) now collaborate with 23 heat-prone states to expand such efforts [3,17]. Indeed, NDMA’s ongoing studies seek to further refine “model HAP” guidelines by incorporating local meteorological, urban, and health data [17].

Despite these successes, more action is needed—especially in smaller towns and rural areas—where knowledge of heat-related risks and the capacity to respond remain limited [18]. Scaling up HAPs, improving building design, and enhancing early warning systems will be crucial as India braces for more extreme heat conditions in coming decades.

3. Precipitation Patterns and Water Stress

Climate projections indicate an increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events in many parts of India [1,19]. While some models forecast overall increases in monsoon rainfall, others highlight significant uncertainty, with potential for both intense flooding and prolonged dry spells [20,21,12,22,23,24,25,26]. Recent decades have already seen more frequent drought conditions in certain regions, as well as episodes of flash flooding that damage crops, infrastructure, and property [1].

The complexity is heightened by Himalayan glacier melt, which initially boosts river flows but, over time, diminishes them [26]. Rising temperatures may also alter the timing of snowmelt, thereby affecting agricultural cycles downstream. Some districts historically not prone to flooding could experience extreme rainfall for the first time, while regions dependent on predictable monsoons face more frequent droughts [3].

Such volatility underscores the importance of integrated water-resource management. Projections show that severe drought frequency may decline under certain pathways yet remain a concern, given growing water demand and receding groundwater tables [1,5]. The Government of India set a target of 20% improvement in water-use efficiency under the NAPCC [8], and a combination of supply- and demand-side measures—rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, watershed restoration—could help reduce vulnerability [5,9]. In practice, states are experimenting with local solutions, including:

• Recharge Structures and Percolation Tanks to combat groundwater depletion.
• Improved Stormwater Drainage and flood-proofing of wells in flood-prone areas.
• Decentralized Water Storage and advanced irrigation scheduling to cope with erratic monsoon timing.

Yet implementation gaps persist. Many development schemes in water-stressed areas do not fully account for climate change projections [5,9]. Moreover, cross-state and upstream-downstream conflicts hinder basin-level water governance.

4. Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture remains the backbone of India’s economy, employing roughly two-thirds of the workforce and contributing nearly a fifth of GDP [23]. Climate sensitivity is high: rising temperatures, changing precipitation, and shifts in seasonal patterns pose direct threats to crop yields. Modeling shows that a 1 °C temperature increase could reduce rice yields by about 14%, with similarly negative impacts on wheat and other staples [1].

The Indo-Gangetic plains, which are vital for India’s wheat production, could face severe declines in yields—over 50% by some estimates—unless farmers switch to heat-tolerant varieties or adopt innovative farm practices [2]. Since 60% of India’s cropland is rainfed [3], unpredictable monsoons can cause either drought stress or flooding, both of which are devastating for marginal farmers.

Moreover, frequent hot nights reduce the viability of key crops, while erratic rainfall complicates sowing decisions. Studies predict a 2.5–16% drop in grain yields for every 1 °C rise in seasonal temperatures [27,28]. Without systemic adaptation measures, India risks a growing gap between domestic food demand and production [1].

Policy solutions under the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (part of the NAPCC) [8,5] emphasize climate-resilient cropping systems, better irrigation, crop insurance expansion, and dissemination of weather forecasts. However, climate adaptation in agriculture is inherently location-specific [21]. Large-scale government programs need to integrate local knowledge, empower farmer cooperatives, and promote context-specific interventions (e.g., salt-tolerant varieties in coastal regions, short-duration crops in drought-prone districts).

5. Development and Poverty Alleviation

Climate change intersects with India’s developmental challenges, disproportionately affecting the poor, who have limited capacity to cope with crop failures, heat stress, or water scarcity. According to some estimates, India lost approximately 167 billion labor hours in 2021 due to heat exposure, translating to around US$159 billion—over 5% of its GDP [29]. Projections indicate the national poverty rate could increase by several percentage points by 2040 if adaptation remains inadequate [11].

In India’s federal structure, central and state governments share responsibilities for vital sectors, including water and agriculture, both of which are highly climate-sensitive [6,30]. States like Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand have begun integrating adaptation into livestock and forestry programs, respectively, showcasing how “mainstreaming adaptation” can occur [9].

Moreover, grassroots-level climate perspectives are essential. Resource-poor farmers often rely on traditional coping mechanisms that are no longer sufficient under accelerating climate extremes [31]. Micro-level planning, combining technical innovations (e.g., drip irrigation) with social measures (e.g., women-led self-help groups), can strengthen local resilience. Government projects like Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change (SLACC) aim to embed these strategies into national schemes such as the National Rural Livelihoods Mission [34].

Internationally, approaches to “mainstreaming” climate considerations into development planning are guided by programs like the UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative, which highlight how to identify entry points, align policy instruments, and ensure implementation [32]. The common thread is that climate adaptation cannot be an isolated endeavor—it must inform sectoral programs, annual budgeting exercises, and long-term governance reforms.

6. Public Health

Rising temperatures facilitate faster pathogen replication, exacerbating malaria, dengue, and other vector-borne diseases [2,1]. Even a 5% rise in vector-borne diseases by mid-century could translate into tens of thousands of additional cases [1]. Heatwaves, meanwhile, amplify cardiovascular and respiratory risks, especially for children, the elderly, and those in poverty [5].

These challenges strain India’s public health infrastructure, which already contends with underfunded rural clinics and uneven distribution of medical facilities [9]. Urban pollution compounds the issue, as rising heat interacts with aerosol and ozone levels [17]. The ongoing expansion of Heat Action Plans includes protocols for better disease surveillance, highlighting a synergy between adaptation and public health modernization.

7. Disaster Management

According to the UNESCAP Risk and Resilience Portal, India faces an annualized average loss of roughly US$93 billion due to a variety of disasters [31]. Drought makes up over 70% of the country’s risk portfolio, followed by floods, cyclones, and earthquakes. Under moderate (RCP 4.5) or worst-case (RCP 8.5) scenarios, losses could escalate dramatically [31]. Certain districts may experience both heatwaves and extreme rainfall in the same year [3].

States like Odisha, Maharashtra, Assam, and Meghalaya have pioneered disaster management practices that offer lessons for the broader country [36]. Odisha’s “zero-casualty” policy during cyclones has attracted global attention. Likewise, cities such as Visakhapatnam have worked to regularize stormwater drains, mitigating urban flood risks [15].

Community-driven adaptation, nature-based solutions, and multi-stakeholder participation have all proven effective in reducing disaster impacts [36]. Nonetheless, far greater investments in capacity building, early warning systems, and post-disaster relief are needed.

8. Infrastructure and Urbanization

India’s urban population is projected to surpass 800 million by 2050 [2]. Urban infrastructure—already under stress from rapid growth—faces new climate risks: frequent flooding, intense heat islands, coastal inundation, and wind damage. Existing roads, buildings, and drainage systems often have not been designed to withstand such extremes [1].

Moreover, public works that obstruct natural drainage or locate housing in low-lying floodplains worsen climate risks [37]. Building codes, urban master plans, and zoning regulations must therefore be reformed to incorporate future climate projections [37]. Public expenditures should prioritize “adaptation assets,” which include both physical structures (e.g., robust flood defenses) and natural buffers (mangroves, wetlands, green corridors) [37].

Simple, cost-effective measures—like porous pavements to reduce runoff, cool roofs for mitigating heat, and expanded tree cover—also yield immediate benefits [2,15,37]. Indian cities such as Indore, Surat, and Coimbatore have piloted climate resilience programs that combine improved stormwater infrastructure with efforts to revive urban water bodies [15]. As climate extremes intensify, these approaches hold potential for replication nationwide.

Beyond the local scale, systemic issues like rural-to-urban migration, climate-induced displacement, and rising energy demands underscore the need for integrated urban adaptation [38]. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, over 140 million people globally may be forced to migrate within their countries due to climate impacts—many heading toward cities, further exacerbating urban vulnerabilities [38].

9. Finance

Estimates suggest India’s adaptation needs could reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, depending on emissions trajectories [15,3,1]. Some analyses indicate a requirement of 0.48% of GDP annually for adaptation across sectors (excluding energy), amounting to over US$200 billion by 2030 [1]. However, the true figure may be even higher if infrastructure, transportation, and newer emerging risks are considered.

At present, climate finance is heavily tilted toward mitigation over adaptation, often by a ratio of 8:1 [37]. India’s National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) and various small-scale pilot projects provide limited resources [14]. Many states note insufficient funding to implement their SAPCC roadmaps, especially as local finances are hampered by economic slowdowns and other competing priorities [11].

To bridge the adaptation financing gap, experts urge:

• Dedicated Budgetary Allocations for adaptation in national and state budgets [11].
• Private Sector Participation via blended finance, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and microinsurance [39].
• Incentivized Borrowing Ceilings that factor in state-level climate risk, allowing more climate-vulnerable regions extra fiscal space [11].
• Green and Resilience Bonds to attract institutional capital to large-scale resilience projects [38].
• Leveraging International Funds (e.g., the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund) while boosting local capacity to design bankable adaptation projects [32].

However, adaptation investments often yield indirect or long-term returns—not always attractive to profit-driven capital. Public sector leadership is therefore essential to de-risk projects and demonstrate viable models [37]. Programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), if climate-proofed, can channel significant resources toward building water-harvesting structures and other resilience assets [3].

10. Local Information and Support Systems

Given India’s ecological and cultural diversity, adaptation planning requires robust local information. A common climate vulnerability assessment framework—introduced under the National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC)—allows Indian states to identify the most at-risk districts and sectors [40]. This approach views vulnerability as a function of sensitivity (how severely a system is affected) and adaptive capacity (the system’s ability to cope) [40,8].

India ranks 5th in the Global Climate Risk Index 2019 by Germanwatch, underscoring its elevated susceptibility to climate impacts [40]. Yet vulnerability varies significantly across states and districts, reinforcing the need for nuanced local adaptation measures [40]. District-level “climate missions,” such as those in Tamil Nadu, coordinate departmental actions, create data repositories, and disseminate region-specific advisories [31].

Such bottom-up processes encourage active community participation, bridging technical expertise with indigenous knowledge [37]. They also help refine or “mainstream” adaptation into existing rural development and social safety-net programs.

11. Himalayan Ecosystem and Other Sectors

Climate change effects in the Himalayan region are particularly dramatic: glaciers recede by 10–15 meters per year, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods and eventually reducing dry-season water supply [12,26]. The Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) supports the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) to protect Himalayan glaciers and biodiversity through research, capacity building, and knowledge sharing [40,8].

Forests and biodiversity are also at risk. Increasing temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and habitat fragmentation threaten native species [5]. India’s National Mission for a Green India seeks to expand and restore forest cover as both a climate mitigation and adaptation strategy [14,8]. In coastal and marine ecosystems, rising seas and storm surges threaten coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and aquaculture. Ecosystem-based adaptation, such as mangrove restoration, is increasingly recognized as cost-effective for both climate resilience and livelihood security [2,15].

12. Cross-Cutting Issues: Gender and Technology

Gender: Women often suffer the worst consequences of climate extremes due to existing social inequalities [41]. Yet many climate policies remain gender-blind or only superficially address gender vulnerabilities. Moving toward gender-transformative adaptation requires explicit resource allocations for women’s livelihood support and leadership roles in local governance. Programs like the Hariyali Green Villages highlight the positive impact of targeting women-headed households for adaptive interventions [14].

Technology: From heatwave early-warning systems to climate-resilient seeds, technology is a crucial adaptation enabler. However, effective technology transfer has been hampered by financing gaps, intellectual property barriers, and weak local manufacturing capacity [1,42]. Future efforts must focus not only on advanced solutions but also on accessible, low-cost technologies suited to local contexts.

13. Discussion

Adaptation is becoming urgent as evidence accumulates of India’s heightened climate vulnerability. While policies like the NAPCC and SAPCCs provide strategic direction, on-ground implementation frequently lags behind the scale of threats [37]. A mission-oriented approach—sometimes called “Mission Adaptation”—could help unify efforts across ministries, public agencies, private financiers, and civil society [37].

This approach would:

• Engage Public Imagination: Clearly articulate adaptation goals and the social benefits of resilience.
• Co-Create Local Solutions: Combine scientific research with community-driven innovations.
• Foster Innovation: Offer financial and policy incentives for new resilience technologies, from robust water management systems to green infrastructure.
• Build Institutional Capacity: Strengthen local and regional governance to integrate climate risk into routine decision-making.
• Leverage Finance: Expand instruments like green bonds, climate-resilience bonds, or PPPs, and direct public investment toward catalytic projects.

Care must be taken to avoid “over-adaptation” (type 1 error—building for a risk that does not materialize) as well as “under-adaptation” (type 2 error—failing to prepare for hazards that do occur) [1]. Flexible, iterative adaptation planning can reduce these pitfalls. More research is needed to fill knowledge gaps on multi-sectoral impacts—including on public health, infrastructure, and urban resilience [7].

Finally, robust monitoring and evaluation frameworks are essential to track the efficacy and equity of adaptation measures. Metrics must capture local contexts, acknowledging that “resilience” depends on social capital, institutional strength, and environmental capacity, not merely on new technologies [37].

14. Path Forward

1. Mainstream Adaptation into Development: Incorporate climate-risk assessments into existing schemes (e.g., MGNREGA, national infrastructure projects) so resilience-building becomes routine.
2. Enhance Heat Preparedness: Expand Heat Action Plans to smaller municipalities and rural areas, focusing on infrastructure improvements (cool roofs) and health surveillance.
3. Accelerate Water Management Reforms: Promote efficient irrigation, groundwater recharge structures, and integrated watershed management to cope with erratic monsoons and melting Himalayan glaciers.
4. Advance Climate-Smart Agriculture: Scale up drought- and flood-resilient crop varieties, increase insurance coverage, and strengthen farmer cooperatives.
5. Urban Resilience Measures: Revise building codes, plan for climate-induced migration, and restore urban water bodies to mitigate floods and heat islands.
6. Close the Adaptation Finance Gap: Introduce climate-incentivized borrowing, mainstream adaptation in public budgets, and develop innovative instruments (e.g., resilience bonds, PPPs).
7. Foster Local Capacity and Participation: Support district-level climate missions, empower women-led groups, and incorporate traditional knowledge into adaptation policies.
8. Monitor and Evaluate Continuously: Employ robust metrics that track vulnerability reduction and well-being outcomes across social groups.

By systematically advancing these measures, India can safeguard development gains, protect vulnerable populations, and move toward a resilient future in the face of mounting climate risks.

Conclusion

India’s path toward climate resilience depends on embedding adaptation across all levels of governance, from central ministries down to local village councils. Evidence shows that climate hazards—particularly heatwaves, erratic precipitation, and extreme weather events—are on an upward trajectory. Adaptation measures such as Heat Action Plans, integrated water management, climate-resilient agriculture, and nature-based coastal defenses provide a starting point. However, realizing their full potential requires an enabling ecosystem of policy, finance, and innovation. By systematically addressing financing gaps, enhancing local institutions, and harnessing both high-tech and grassroots solutions, India can move toward a future where development gains are safeguarded against the adverse impacts of a warming planet.

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